\tikzset{
  observed/.style={circle, draw},
  partly observed/.style 2 args={draw, fill=#2, path picture={
      \fill[#1, sharp corners] (path picture bounding box.south west) -|
      (path picture bounding box.north east) -- cycle;},
     circle},
    unobserved/.style={draw, circle, fill=gray!40},
    residual/.style={draw, rectangle},
   step box/.style={draw, rectangle, fill=gray!25, text width=6.7in, inner sep=0.2in, align=left, anchor=south west, execute at begin node=\setlength{\baselineskip}{4ex}},,
    decision box/.style={draw, diamond, fill=blue!20, text width=2in, align=center, inner sep=0.1in, anchor=south west, execute at begin node=\setlength{\baselineskip}{1ex},aspect=3},
    outcome box/.style={draw, rectangle, fill=gray!5, text width=2in, inner sep=0.25in, align=center, anchor=south west, execute at begin node=\setlength{\baselineskip}{4ex}},
        show curve controls/.style={
    postaction={
      decoration={
        show path construction,
        curveto code={
          \draw [blue] 
            (\tikzinputsegmentfirst) -- (\tikzinputsegmentsupporta)
            (\tikzinputsegmentlast) -- (\tikzinputsegmentsupportb);
          \fill [red, opacity=0.5] 
            (\tikzinputsegmentsupporta) circle [radius=.2ex]
            (\tikzinputsegmentsupportb) circle [radius=.2ex];
        }
      },
      decorate
    }},
    myarrow/.style={
    arrows={-Stealth[round, open]},
    scale=1,
    line width=1pt
    },
    myarrownotip/.style={
    scale=1,
    line width=1pt
    },
    mylabel/.style={
      text width=2.2in,
      align=center,
      inner sep=1ex,
      font={\mdseries\itshape\sffamily #1}
    }
}
\newcommand{\myindent}{\hspace{1em}}

\begin{tikzpicture}[every node/.style={transform shape}, scale=0.68]

    \node[step box] (manual) {\textbf{Step 1. Attempt Manual Content Analysis}\\ \myindent a. Analyze an affordable annotated dataset (\textit{feasible estimator}) \\\myindent b. Follow manual content analysis recommendations (Bachl \& Scharkow, 2017; Gei\ss, 2021) };

   \node[outcome box] (report_manual) [below right=0.2in of manual] {Report evidence from manual content analysis.}; 

   \node[step box] (test_systematic) [below left=0.2in of report_manual] {\textbf{Step 2. Use Manually Annotated Data to Detect Systematic Misclassification}\\ \myindent Test if ACs are conditionally independent of (in-)dependent variables given annotations. \\ \myindent For an independent variable test that $P(W|X,Z) = P(W|X,Y,Z)$ \\ \myindent For a dependent variable test that $P(W|Y) = P(W|Y,Z,X)$.};  

   \node[step box] (correct) [below=0.55in of test_systematic] {\textbf{Step 3. Correct Misclassification Bias Instead of Being Naive}};  

   \node[step box] (report) [below=2.8in of correct] {\textbf{Step 4. Provide a Full Account Of Methodological Decisions}\\ \myindent a. Information on AC design (e.g., sample size; sampling; cross-validation; balance)\\ \myindent b. Information on manual annotation (e.g., sample size; intercoder reliability)\\ \myindent c. Information on AC performance (e.g., predictiveness metrics on manual annotations) \\ \myindent d. Information on error correction (e.g., systematic error;  correction methods)};  

   \node[mylabel, anchor=south west] (independent) [below=8ex of correct,xshift=1.23in] {Independent\\ variable}; 
   \node[mylabel, anchor=south west] (dependent) [below=10ex of independent] {Dependent\\ variable};

   \node[outcome box] (outcome_systematic_iv) [below =3.8in of report_manual] {Use MLE or MI.}; 
   \node[outcome box] (outcome_nonsystematic_iv) [above =3ex of outcome_systematic_iv] {Use GMM or MLE.};

    %   \node[outcome box] (outcome_systematic_dv) [below =2in of outcome_nonsystematic_iv] {Use MLE.}; 

   \node[outcome box] (outcome_dv) [below =3ex of outcome_systematic_iv] {Use MLE.};

  % & \node[] (iv_1) {Independent variable}; & \node[decision box] (dv_1) {Dependent variable}; \\

 \draw[myarrow] (manual.south) to [controls=+(280:2) and +(165:1.5)] (report_manual.west) { node [mylabel, pos=0.5, yshift=-5ex, xshift=5.5in] {Found convincing evidence}}; 

 \draw[myarrow] (test_systematic) to (correct);
 \draw[myarrow] (manual.south) to (test_systematic) {node [mylabel, pos=0.5, yshift=-5ex,xshift=2.5in] {Require stronger evidence\\ via an AC}}; 

 \draw[myarrownotip] (correct.south) to [controls=+(280:1.4) and  +(160:1.4)] (independent);

 \draw[myarrow] (independent.north)+(3ex,0) to [xshift=17ex, yshift=-4.5ex, controls=+(80:1.2) and +(170:1.2)] (outcome_nonsystematic_iv.west) {node [mylabel] {Nonsystematic misclassification}};

 \draw[myarrow] (independent.south)+(3ex,0) to [xshift=15ex, yshift=-4ex, controls=+(290:0.4) and +(180:0.8)] (outcome_systematic_iv.west) {node [mylabel] { Systematic misclassification}}; 

 \draw[myarrownotip] (correct.south) to [controls=+(280:3) and +(150:2)] (dependent);

 \draw[myarrow] (dependent)+(8ex,2ex) to [xshift=15ex,yshift=-4ex, controls=+(80:0.8) and +(170:1)] (outcome_dv.west);

 % \draw[myarrow] (systematic)to [xshift=15ex,yshift=-4ex, controls=+(270:1) and +(180:1)] (outcome_systematic_dv.west) {node [mylabel] { Dependent variable}}; 

 \draw[myarrow] (correct) to (report); 

% \draw[myarrow] (convincing_evidence.east) to (report_manual);
% \draw[myarrow] (convincing_evidence.south) to (test_systematic);
% \draw[myarrow] (test_systematic) to (iv_1);

\end{tikzpicture}
\vspace{1ex}
% \end{figure}                    
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