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add planning document from the wikia rise and declines project.

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Nathan TeBlunthuis 2023-04-19 12:05:05 -07:00
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#!/usr/bin/make
all: $(patsubst %.tex,%.pdf,$(wildcard *.tex))
# use the following section for Rnw/knitr documents
# all: $(patsubst %.Rnw,%.pdf,$(wildcard *.Rnw))
# %.tex: %.Rnw
# Rscript -e "library(knitr); knit('$<')"
%.pdf: %.tex refs.bib
latexmk -f -pdf $<
clean:
latexmk -f -pdf -c *.tex
rm -f *.tmp
# the following lines are useful for Rnw/knitr
# rm -rf cache/ figure/
# rm -f *.tex
viewpdf: all
evince *.pdf
spell:
aspell -c -t --tex-check-comments -b text.tex
vc:
vc-git
.PHONY: clean all refs.bib
.PRECIOUS: %.tex

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% Some article styles and page layout tweaks for the LaTeX Memoir class.
%
% Copyright 2009 Benjamin Mako Hill <mako@atdot.cc>
% Copyright 2008-2009 Kieran Healy <kjhealy@soc.duke.edu>
% Distributed as free software under the GNU GPL v3
% This file is heavily based on one by Kieran Healy
% available here: http://github.com/kjhealy/latex-custom-kjh/
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% put a period after the section numbers
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% set name of bibliography to 'references'
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% turn off chapter numbering
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% supress chapter numbers
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% reduce skip after section heading
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% 'abstract' title, bigger skip from title
% \renewcommand{\maketitle}{\{\preauthor \theauthor\} \hfill \thetitle}
\renewcommand{\maketitle}{
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\makepagestyle{mako-mem-git}
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\endinput

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\documentclass[12pt]{memoir}
% article-1 and article-2 styles were originally based on kieran healy's
% templates
\usepackage{mako-mem}
\chapterstyle{article-2}
% with article-3 \chapterstyle, change to: \pagestyle{memo}
\pagestyle{mako-mem}
\usepackage[utf8]{inputenc}
\usepackage[T1]{fontenc}
\usepackage{textcomp}
\usepackage[garamond]{mathdesign}
\usepackage[letterpaper,left=1.65in,right=1.65in,top=1.3in,bottom=1.2in]{geometry}
% packages i use in essentially every document
\usepackage{graphicx}
\usepackage{enumerate}
% packages i use in many documents but leave off by default
% \usepackage{amsmath, amsthm, amssymb}
% \usepackage{dcolumn}
% \usepackage{endfloat}
% import and customize urls
\usepackage[usenames,dvipsnames]{color}
\usepackage[breaklinks]{hyperref}
\hypersetup{colorlinks=true, linkcolor=Black, citecolor=Black, filecolor=Blue,
urlcolor=Blue, unicode=true}
% add bibliographic stuff
% add bibliographic stuff
\usepackage[american]{babel}
\usepackage{csquotes}
\usepackage[natbib=true, style=apa, backend=biber]{biblatex}
\addbibresource{refs.bib}
\DeclareLanguageMapping{american}{american-apa}
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\baselineskip 14.2pt%
\prebibhook}
\def\citepos#1{\citeauthor{#1}'s (\citeyear{#1})}
\def\citespos#1{\citeauthor{#1}' (\citeyear{#1})}
% memoir function to take out of the space out of the whitespace lists
\firmlists
% LATEX NOTE: these lines will import vc stuff after running `make vc` which
% will add version control information to the bottom of each page. This can be
% useful for keeping track of which version of a document somebody has:
\usepackage{tikz}
\usetikzlibrary{arrows}
\usetikzlibrary{positioning}
\begin{document}
\setlength{\parskip}{4.5pt}
% LATEX NOTE: Ideal linespacing is usually said to be between 120-140% the
% typeface size. So, for 12pt (default in this document, we're looking for
% somewhere between a 14.4-17.4pt \baselineskip. Single; 1.5 lines; and Double
% in MSWord are equivalent to ~117%, 175%, and 233%.
\baselineskip 16pt
\title{Outline: Reproducing the rise and decline of open participation
platform}
\author{Nathan TeBlunthuis\\
\href{mailto:nathante@uw.edu}{nathante@uw.edu}} \date{}
\published{\textsc{\textcolor{BrickRed}{This document is an
unpublished draft.\\ Please do not distribute or cite without
permission.}}}
\maketitle
\section{Rationale}
\begin{itemize}
\item Commons based peer production (CBPP) communities are admired for
their ability to coordinate work on complex goods by workers with
diverse motivations, without reliance on formal hierarchy or market
transaction \citep{benkler_coases_2002}. Understanding how peer
production projects this is an important question for designing more
``efficient and equitable'' systems for cooperative work on
expanding categories of goods \citep{benkler_peer_2015}.
\item The number of active contributors to Wikipedia rose rapidly in
2005, but peaked in 2007 and began a gradual decline
\citet{halfaker_rise_2013}. The decline is a source of concern for
the long term success of peer production projects.
\item CBPP systems are able to perform decentralized governance work
to resolve disputes and manage resources
\citep{forte_defining_2013}.
\item However, as communities grow, territorial and controlling senior
members of the community can sometimes appropriate governance
systems to centralize power \citep{shaw_laboratories_2014}.
\item Wikipedia's decline has been explained by process in which
influxes of newcomers correspond with increasing strict or
impersonal governance quality control and that these hurt newcomer
retention \citep{halfaker_rise_2013}. \citet{halfaker_rise_2013}
show that quality control mechanisms including contribution
rejection, formal and calcified rules, and algorithmic tool are
associated with newcomer dropout on Wikipedia.
\item \citet{kiene_surviving_2016} similarly observe how an influx of
newcomers lead an original horror fiction subreddit to develop
stricter governance to preserve the community's distinctive culture
and collective identity.
\item \citet{halfaker_rise_2013} also hypothesize that Wikipedia
increased impersonal governance to deal with the massive influx of
newcomers caused by Wikipedia's popularity.
\item However, evidence for this as a theory about peer production
systems in general rather than a phenomenon specific to Wikipedia
requires observing many communities. It is unknown whether the
mechanisms described by \citep{halfaker_rise_2013} generalize to
other wikis.
\item This is important because this theory is informing design
interventions on Wikipedia that aim to mitigate the decline by
promoting newcomer socialization
\citep{farzan_socializing_2012,morgan_tea_2013,narayan_wikipedia_2017,halfaker_snuggle:_2014}.
\item Furthermore, it is informing the development of commons based
peer production projects other than Wikipedia
\citep{palen_success_2015}.
\item If influxes of newcomers promote strict governance, and strict
governance conversely decreases newcomer activity, complex dynamics
may arise. Growth patterns are often bursty (though not on
Wikipedia). Crises other than newcomer influxes might also promote
strict governance. In an extreme case a community may experience
many crisis periods each of which accompany increases in governance.
If governance does not decrease during periods of non-growth, it
will accumulate and in the long run the community will die as
newcomer attention approaches zero.
% \item Group size may interact with rule making, tool use, and newcomer
% retention. Group size may be positively related to retention if
% group size produces social incentives. \citet{zhang_group_2010}
% show that an exogenous decrease in group size may have undermined
% motivations to contribute to Chinese Wikipedia. On the other hand,
% group size might also increase propensity of free--riding
% behavior\citep{isaac_group_1994}.
\end{itemize}
\section{Objectives}
\subsection{General Objectives}
\label{sec:general-objectives}
\begin{enumerate}
\item Contribute to understanding the relationships between governance
mechanisms and contributor retention in commons based peer
production communities by synthesizing theories of how crises such
as influxes of newcomers increase the accumulation rules and
impersonal governance, which can threaten the long term health of
the communities, with supporting statistical evidence from a large
number of Wikia wikis.
\end{enumerate}
\subsection{Specific Objectives}
\label{sec:specific-objectives}
\begin{enumerate}
\item Test hypotheses from \citet{halfaker_rise_2013} on a population
of wikis using an econometric model of newcomer retention given
rules, automated regulation tools, contribution rejection, group
size, and interactions.
\item Test the hypothesis that (controlling for damage) an increased
rate of newcomer activity increases impersonal governance.
\end{enumerate}
\subsection{Meta Objective}
\label{sec:meta-objectives}
Nate to practice swift execution of a straightforward, important,
good, and interesting article.
\section{Null Hypotheses}
\label{sec:null-hypotheses}
\begin{enumerate}
\item Impersonal governance is not negatively related to newcomer
retention.
\begin{enumerate}
\item \label{A} Rejected contributions do not have a negative relationship with
newcomer survival.
\item \label{B} (given we reject \ref{A}) Talk page discussion
following a rejected newcomer contribution is not related to a decrease in
newcomer survival.
\item (given we reject \ref{B}) Use of a tool in rejecting a
contribution is not related to a decrease in follow-up discussion in
newcomer edits.
\item The formalization and calcification of rules is not related to a
decrease in newcomer survival.
\end{enumerate}
\item Increasing newcomer activity is not positively related to
impersonal governance.
\begin{enumerate}
\item The rate of change in newcomer contributions by newcomers is
not related to increased rejection rate of newcomer contributions.
\item The rate of change in newcomer contributions is not related to
increased rate of tool assisted rejection of newcomer contributions.
\item The rate of change in newcomer contributions is not related to
decreased discussion following rejected newcomer contributions.
\item The rate of change in newcomer contributions has no relationship
with rule accrual.
\end{enumerate}
\end{enumerate}
\clearpage
\section{Conceptual Model/Diagram}
\label{sec:conc-modeld}
\begin{figure}[h]
\begin{tikzpicture} [->,>=stealth',shorten >=1pt,auto,
thick,
concept node/.style={rectangle,draw,font=\sffamily\bfseries},
measure node/.style={rectangle,draw,font=\sffamily\bfseries,fill=blue!20}]
\node[concept node] (retention) [align=center]
{Newcomer retention};
% \node[concept node] (population) [below of=retention,yshift=-10mm,align=center]
% {Contributor population};
\node[concept node] (rules) [above of =retention,
align=center,yshift=60mm]
{Rules \\ (formalization,\\calcification)};
\node[concept node] (rejection) [left of = rules,
align=center,xshift=-40mm]
{Contribution rejected \\ (reverted, deleted)};
\node[concept node] (discussion) [below of = rules,
align=center,yshift=-20mm,xshift=10mm]
{Discussion \\ following rejection};
\node[concept node] (growth) [above of = rejection,
align=center,yshift=30mm]
{Increasing newcomer activity};
\node[concept node] (tools) [right of =rejection,
align=center,xshift=70mm,yshift=15mm]
{Automated regulation tools \\ (e.g. bots, huggle)};
\path[every node/.style={font=\sffamily}]
(growth) edge node {+} (tools)
(growth) edge [] node {+} (rules)
(growth) edge [] node {+} (rejection)
(growth) edge [bend right=10] node {-} (discussion)
% (retention) edge node {+} (population)
(rules) edge [bend right =20] node {-} (retention)
(discussion) edge node {+} (retention)
(rejection) edge node {-} (retention)
(rejection) edge node {+} (discussion)
(tools) edge node {-} (discussion)
(tools) edge [bend left=30] node {-} (retention)
(retention) edge [bend left=70] node {+} (growth);
\end{tikzpicture}
\caption{ Conceptual model: reproduction of
\cite{halfaker_rise_2013}, with addition of newcomer activity}
\end{figure}
\clearpage
\section{Measures}
\label{sec:measures}
The study will have 5 models. The first model is for hypothesis
1. The last 4 models are for hypothesis 2.
\begin{enumerate}
\item \label{mod.discrete} Discrete time survival model of newcomers.
% \item \label{mod.cont} Contiguous time survival (Cox proportional hazards) model of
% newcomers.
\item Contribution rejection
\item Rule accrual
\item Automated tool accrual
\item Interaction with newcomers
\end{enumerate}
Data will be the 2010 Wikia dumps. Inclusion criteria will be broad.
The unit of analysis for model 1 is the newcomer. We will model random
intercept variance terms for Wikis because partial pooling is more
realistic than complete pooling and afford inclusion of the many small
Wikis with activity levels and scales. Also Nate is comfortable
working with lme4. \citep{halfaker_rise_2013} use fixed effects for
year, which is fine, but we should also take a look at models with
fixed effects for month as well.
For models 2-5 the unit of analysis will be the wiki. This model will
have only two levels: Wiki and time. Again we will fit models with
fixed effects for month and year.
For both models we will use heteroskedasticity robust standard
errors.
For models 2-5 we will include autoregression terms (equivalent to
adding lagged outcome variables to the RHS) for the depdendent
variable (AR(1) or AR(2)).
\subsection{Newcomer retention}
\label{sec:newcomer-retention}
Following \citet{halfaker_rise_2013}, a new contributor is a logged-in
editor in their first edit-session. The dependent variable for model
\ref{mod.discrete} indicates whether a new contributor makes a
subsequent edit within the next 2 months.
While \citet{halfaker_rise_2013} sampled a set of desirable newcomers
to distinguish them from spammers and vandals. Doing this for a large
number of Wikis would be very labor
intensive. \citet{halfaker_rise_2013} results for their set of
desirable newcomers point in the same direction as their results for
all newcomers. We will analyze all newcomers without attempting to
distinguish the desirable from the undesirable.
\subsubsection{Newcomer controls}
\label{sec:newcomer-controls}
Again following \citet{halfaker_rise_2013} we will include controls
for the number of edits that a newcomer makes in their first session.
We will also include a count variable for the number of edits that
newcomer has made on Wikia overall and an indicator for whether the
newcomer has edited any other Wikia wikis.
\subsection{Rejected newcomer contributions}
\label{sec:reject-newc-edits}
After identifying newcomers, we can easily identify contributions they
have made which have been rejected. These are (a.) edits which are
reverted, or (b.) new articles which are deleted.
\subsection{Discussion following rejection}
\label{sec:disc-foll-reject}
After identifying rejected edits we can identify whether there is
follow-up discussion according. Following \citet{halfaker_rise_2013}
we will measure reciprocity in discussion, which is when the reverting
editor posts to the talk page after the newcomer.
It is likely that the bold-revert-discuss (BRD) is not a strong norm
on Wikia as it is on Wikipedia. Therefore we will also include
indications of other forms of interaction between reverting editor and
reverted newcomer (user talk page, talk page no matter who posts
first, message wall).
\subsection{Automated regulation}
\label{sec:automated-regulation}
We will use Mako's tool for scraping admin and bot data from Wikia to
identify bot accounts and detect edits made by these tools.
Find out if methods following \citep{geiger_defense_2012} can easily
identify tool use on Wikia.
\subsection{Rules}
\label{sec:rules}
To measure rules we will track activity in namespace 4. Again
following \citet{halfaker_rise_2013} we use the following variables
for norm ``formalization''.
\begin{itemize}
\item The number of total contributors who contributed to norms
pages.
\item The number of contributions to norms pages
\item The change in page length in a norm category
\end{itemize}
And the following variables for norm ``calcification''
\begin{itemize}
\item The time since the first edit of a norm page editor (slightly
different from \citet{halfaker_rise_2013}.
\item Wiki age.
\end{itemize}
We do not use the ``Essay'' category as it is Wikipedia specific.
\subsection{Increasing newcomer activity}
\label{sec:incr-newc-activ}
We will estimate the rate of change of newcomer activity according to
the change in newcomer (the rate of editing by with accounts less than
2 months old) from one month to the next.
The outcome variables in models 2-5 are also rates of change and
likewise we can model using first differences.
We will fit a number of alternative specifications using things like
moving averages. We will aim to report the simplest model that makes a
compelling and justified argument.
\section{Dummy Tables}
\label{sec:dummy-tables}
\begin{table}
\centering
\footnotesize
\begin{tabular}[h!]{l|cc }
\toprule
Variable & Est & SE \\
\midrule
(Intercept) & . & . \\
Time & . & . \\
Session Edits & . & . \\
Deleted & . & . \\
Reverted & . & . \\
Messaged & . & . \\
Tool Revert & . & . \\
Reciprocal Discussion & . & . \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\caption{Regression table for hypothesis 1}
\end{table}
\begin{table}
\footnotesize
\centering
\begin{tabular}[h!]{l|cccccccc}
\toprule
Variable & M2. Est & M2.SE & M3. Est & M3.SE & M4.Est & M4.SE & M5. Est & M5.SE \\
\midrule
(Intercept) & . & . & . & . & . & . & . & . \\
Time & . & . & . & . & . & . & . & . \\
Active Editors & . & . & . & . & . & . & . & . \\
Rate of editing overall & . & . & . & . & . & . & . & . \\
Rate of newcomer edits & . & . & . & . & . & . & . & . \\
Number of articles & . & . & . & . & . & . & . & . \\
Total wiki length & . & . & . & . & . & . & . & . \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}
\caption{Regression table for hypothesis 2}
\end{table}
\section{Threats to Validity and Limitations}
\label{sec:thre-valid-limit}
\subsection{Measures}
Our measures of ``discussion following rejection'' as an indication of the
degree of impersonality in governance follows the prior work we aim to
replicate. These measures are virtuous in their simplicity and
clarity, but reduce complex interpersonal communication to counts of
categories of interaction. This is a potential source of bias, noise,
and a threat to construct and ecological validity.
We do not attempt to identify desirable vs undesirable
newcomers. \citet{halfaker_rise_2013} did not find substantive
differences between the two groups. However if we fail to fully
replicate their findings, this could be a reason.
Using first difference to measure rates of change is pretty freaking
noisy! We hope to capture average trends, but it's possible for
oscillations and lags and other fun time series problems to impart
bias. Using a smoothed average helps address such threats in exchange
for new ones. We should fit multiple models with different
specifications to make sure our results are robust to this decision.
Using namespace 4 as a proxy for rules is also noisy and possibly
biased. Some wikis use namespace 4 for activities other than norm
setting and rule making. We have not found a good systematic way to
separate these activities from rules.
\subsection{Causality}
Our data are observational and not capable of offering strong evidence
for causal claims.
\subsection{Generalizability}
We are studying a lot of Wikis. Our theories are of concern to other
kinds of communities (e.g. Reddit, OSM). We don't know if our results
generalize to such settings.
Communities might make rules in response to other kinds of crises
(consider instances of harassment). We don't know if our results will
generalize to rules created in response to other crises. Maybe
governance strategies created in response to newcomers are more
damaging to newcomers than governance systems targeted at managing other
kinds of crises.
\subsection{Theory}
Our theory is incomplete. Maybe the feedback loop between newcomer
influx and rule making dampens itself to a stable equilibria with a
sustainable population and institutionalized rules. Maybe communities
can identify when governance systems threaten growth and survival and
scale them back. Our data and analysis don't have much to say about
that.
\section{Schedule}
The CHI abstract deadline is September 12.
The goal is to have a draft of this article written in 5 weeks, by
July 31th. This should be doable because our measures are quite
straight forward. 2010 Wikia data is already on Hyak and ready to go.
The first draft of the paper can be short, but should hit the key
points, and have a clear and attractive presentation of results. This
will give us over a month to refine and revise.
\begin{table}
\centering
\begin{tabular}[h]{l|l p{6cm}}
\toprule
Date & Milestone & Description \\
\midrule
July 30 & Build dataset & Have a data.table with analytic
variables. (It is ok if we don't have
great data on bots yet) \\
July 7 & Results & Fit, interpret, plot (first
attempt) models for
5 hypotheses. \\
July 14 & Draft front matter & Read additional key
citations, draft a
CHI-style
introduction and
background section. \\
July 20 & Draft for CDSC retreat & Circulate a rough draft for
the CDSC collective. \\
July 31 & Complete draft & Finish the rest of the draft. Turn over
to Mako for feedback.
\end{tabular}
\caption{Weekly milestones}
\end{table}
\label{sec:schedule}
% bibliography here
\printbibliography[title = {References}, heading=secbib]
\end{document}
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